TAPI Pipeline Progress Renews Hope for Central Asian Gas in Pakistan

Progress on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline has once again put the long-delayed project in the spotlight, raising hopes that Pakistan could gain access to a major source of natural gas from Central Asia and reduce pressure on its existing energy supply system.

Work advances on the Afghan section

Work on the 153-kilometre Serhetabat-Herat section in Afghanistan is moving ahead, with Turkmenistan sending around 700 specialists and more than 250 pieces of construction and specialised equipment to the site. Engineers, welders, gas experts and other workers are involved in the construction, supported by heavy machinery being used for the project.

The wider TAPI pipeline is expected to cover about 1,814 kilometres, beginning in Turkmenistan and passing through Afghanistan and Pakistan before reaching the Indian border. The pipeline has been designed to carry up to 33 billion cubic metres of natural gas a year from Turkmenistan's Galkynysh field.

The latest progress has revived interest in a project that has faced years of delays and security, financing and implementation challenges. Turkmenistan has reported faster work on the Afghan section following high-level talks with Afghanistan in August, while construction of the Serhetabat-Herat stretch began in September 2024.

What TAPI could mean for Pakistan

For Pakistan, the project could offer another route for meeting its growing gas requirements. The country currently relies heavily on imported LNG, leaving its energy sector exposed to changes in international prices as well as disruptions affecting global shipping routes.

Maliha Mehmood, a research assistant at the Institute of Regional Studies, told Wealth Pakistan that TAPI could give Pakistan greater flexibility by providing access to gas through a land route from Central Asia.

She said an overland supply could become particularly useful when LNG prices rise or maritime routes face disruption. The pipeline could also strengthen Pakistan's position as a transit and energy link between Central Asia and South Asian markets.

The project is estimated to cost around $10 billion, according to Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which regards TAPI as part of the country's broader energy security strategy. Islamabad and Ashgabat signed a Joint Implementation Plan in 2023 in an effort to speed up work on the Pakistani portion of the pipeline.

Under the existing arrangement, Pakistan and India are each expected to receive 47.5 percent of the contracted gas, while Afghanistan is allocated the remaining 5 percent, according to the Asian Development Bank.

Price and financing will be decisive

Despite the strategic importance of the project, experts say Pakistan will ultimately have to make a hard commercial assessment before committing itself to long-term gas purchases.

Dr Masood Ahmed, assistant professor at the Department of Governance and Public Policy at the National University of Modern Languages in Islamabad, said the most important question would be the price at which TAPI gas reaches Pakistani consumers.

Pakistan would need to compare the delivered cost of the gas with LNG and other available sources. Transit charges, financing arrangements, security costs and the final gas price would all determine whether TAPI could compete with alternative supplies.

The pipeline could be particularly valuable for industries that depend on a steady gas supply, including the fertiliser sector and other manufacturing industries. Ahmed said the project would make greater economic sense if it could provide reliable gas at a price that allows these sectors to remain competitive.

There are also questions about how Pakistan would guarantee sufficient demand and secure payments over the long term. A project of TAPI's scale requires stable contracts and predictable gas purchases for many years if the investment involved in construction is to be recovered.

Security and implementation risks remain

Security will remain another important consideration, particularly because the pipeline passes through Afghanistan before entering Pakistan. Any prolonged disruption along the route could affect the reliability of supplies and increase the cost of operating the project.

For Islamabad, the renewed construction activity therefore brings a mixture of opportunity and caution. TAPI could diversify Pakistan's sources of natural gas, give the country another option alongside LNG and deepen its energy links with Central Asia. Those benefits will depend on whether the pipeline can overcome its longstanding commercial, security and implementation challenges.

With work continuing on the Afghan section, Pakistan now faces the task of ensuring that its legal arrangements, infrastructure, financing and gas-purchase commitments are ready to move forward if the project reaches the stage of delivering gas across its territory.

The latest developments have given TAPI fresh momentum, but for Pakistan the real test will be turning that momentum into a reliable and affordable source of energy rather than allowing the project to remain another long-term promise on the country's energy map.