Spray and pray is not an export strategy
Somewhere in Sialkot, a surgical instruments manufacturer is holding a purchase order from a distributor in Frankfurt. Someone in Washington, DC, is still trying to figure out how to import mangoes from Pakistan without going through the hassle of asking...
Pakistan’s export challenge is not simply a lack of financing, but a mismatch between how credit is distributed and where new export growth can actually emerge, according to a Dawn Business analysis published on July 20, 2026.
The piece argues that policymakers have long responded to weak exports by expanding refinance lines, subsidies and mark-up support schemes. But those tools, it says, mostly help established exporters scale up existing business rather than helping smaller firms enter new markets, win new buyers or launch new products. In the article’s view, Pakistan has a “spray and pray” approach to export finance, spreading support too broadly across familiar sectors instead of targeting firms and product lines with untapped potential.
The report describes everyday examples of missed opportunities: a surgical instruments maker in Sialkot with an order from Frankfurt, a potential mango buyer in Washington who cannot easily access Pakistan’s export channels, and a consumer in Oslo looking for the official FIFA World Cup 2026 football. In each case, the demand exists, but exporters may lack the information, documentation, financing structure or bankability needed to convert interest into completed sales.
Citing data discussed in the article, the analysis says the Export Finance Scheme reaches about 5% of exporters by number, while long-term financing reaches fewer than 1%. It adds that the top 100 exporters, which account for about 40% of export value, receive around two-thirds of export finance, and that most long-term financing goes into textiles and allied sectors. The result, the author argues, is that Pakistan keeps financing the same export base rather than building new one.
The article also points to research suggesting that export finance support can increase export volumes, but with limited effect on product diversification or market expansion. It says firms are much more likely to qualify for support on traditional products than on newer ones, reinforcing the pattern of financing familiar trade instead of discovery.
A central argument is that export growth should be pursued through more targeted, transaction-based structures. The article suggests identifying low-base tariff lines where Pakistan already has some capability but global demand remains under-served, then matching firms to three possible pathways: entering a new market, selling to a new buyer, or scaling a new product. It says each pathway would require different financing terms, rather than one uniform refinance rate.
The analysis also says trade guarantees and partial credit guarantees could help banks take on structured export transactions by lowering perceived risk without replacing commercial judgment. It highlights Pakistan’s food exports as a case where specific bottlenecks can be named and addressed, including quality segregation, cleaning and grading, sanitary and phytosanitary compliance, approved plants, and cold-chain capacity.
This report is based on a monitored public feed. Source attribution: Dawn Business, via its Business and Finance Weekly analysis by an IBA assistant professor and CEO of the National Credit Guarantee Company Limited.
Source: Dawn Business - https://www.dawn.com/news/2016992/spray-and-pray-is-not-an-export-strategy
